The Paths from Middle Class: Evaluation of the Poverty Risks for the Russian Middle Class

The middle class is usually perceived as a main supporter of innovations, source of political stability, and core consumer of goods and services. As a result, its members are traditionally supposed to have high human potential and make a significant contribution to economic growth both in certain country and all over the world, which permanently generates great interest in the issues concerning middle class. However, the main research questions have changed significantly over the last years. The experts both in Russia and abroad highlight the factors that negatively influence the position of the middle class. These are changes in labor market, price growth that outruns the growth of income, increase of tax burden and problems with access to public goods. During COVID-19 pandemic the income has fallen, the risks of unemployment have increased, and the costs of healthcare also have grown. The scholars in different countries underline similar tendencies: middle-class members, who already had to live in an ambiguous world, faced the risks of falling into poverty during the corona crisis. Using data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitor Survey, we evaluate the tracks of middle-class families during 2014-2020 and demonstrate that the problem of poverty affects a part of this social stratum every year. But the share of middle-class members with the income below the poverty line is relatively low and remains largely unaffected by the current corona crisis. © 2023 National Research University Higher School of Economics. All rights reserved.

Short-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on employment and income of the Russian population: which groups were affected the most?

The paper analyzes short-term factors of job loss, wage reduction and factors of household income reduction in Russia in the context of the coronavirus crisis. Panel data of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey - Higher School of Economics (RLMS-HSE) served as empirical basis of the study. According to the study results, the highest risks of job loss are registered among females, young employees, unskilled workers, workers without professional education, and workers with low wages. However, almost the only factor of wage reduction (in case of retained employment) is employment in the most affected industries. Household income prior to the pandemic is the key determinant of household income reduction – the higher the level of material wellbeing, the higher the risk of income reduction. Increased probability of income reduction is also reported for families with children. The study has confirmed the hypothesis about negative impact of vulnerable employment on employment and wages of individuals, as well as household income.